Royal Statistical Society on the need for mechanisms “…to enforce clear communication about the uncertainty surrounding predictive models; and transparency about models and data”

Nice article entitled “All models are wrong, but some are completely wrong” by Martin Goodson. It looks at some of the mistakes and lessons learnt from the IPCC’s experience of interfacing with the public and policy actors, and draws some conclusions for the situation with COVID19 and modelling. It suggests 6 “rules”: Scientists and journalists… Read More Royal Statistical Society on the need for mechanisms “…to enforce clear communication about the uncertainty surrounding predictive models; and transparency about models and data”

Chatham House: Predictions and Policymaking: Complex Modelling Beyond COVID-19

Nice piece looking at some of the difficulties of using complex modelling to inform policy making. “…if not carefully considered and communicated, the increased use of complex modelling in policymaking holds the potential to undermine and obfuscate the policymaking process, which may contribute towards significant mistakes being made, increased uncertainty, lack of trust in the… Read More Chatham House: Predictions and Policymaking: Complex Modelling Beyond COVID-19

Position paper:Computational Models That Matter During a Global Pandemic Outbreak: A Call to Action

Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic is causing a dramatic loss of lives worldwide, challenging the sustainability of our health care systems, threatening economic meltdown, and putting pressure on the mental health of individuals (due to social distancing and lock-down measures). The pandemic is also posing severe challenges to the scientific community, with scholars under pressure to… Read More Position paper:Computational Models That Matter During a Global Pandemic Outbreak: A Call to Action

Paper on some of the things that can go wrong when modellers interact with Policy Actors

“Naturally, politicians will look for any information or argument they can find to advance their agendas-that is their job” [1, p. 83] Edmonds, B. & Adoha, L. (2019) Using agent-based simulation to inform policy – what could possibly go wrong? In Davidson, P. & Verhargen, H. (Eds.) (2019). Multi-Agent-Based Simulation XIX, 19th International Workshop, MABS… Read More Paper on some of the things that can go wrong when modellers interact with Policy Actors

Computational Models That Matter During a Global Pandemic Outbreak: A Call to Action

A position paper on complex modelling and COVID19, including the need for open and transparent sharing of models and data. Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic is causing a dramatic loss of lives worldwide, challenging the sustainability of our health care systems, threatening economic meltdown, and putting pressure on the mental health of individuals (due to social… Read More Computational Models That Matter During a Global Pandemic Outbreak: A Call to Action