https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/27/uk-to-name-scientific-advisers-on-emergency-coronavirus-group-sage Including the: Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (Spi-M) sub-group Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Behaviours (Spi-B) sub-group and New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag) Guardian article says: Vallance said there was interest in the Sage meetings across Whitehall from early on. Many people were… Read More UK Gov to release names of those on key scientific advisory panels

An example of the difficult-to-find mistakes that can occur if others can not inspect, run and check the code of complex simulations in Physics Today: “The war over supercooled water” by Ashley G. Smart.

I am not sure of the exact release date, might have been 3 days ago (about a month after their model results helped change UK government lock-down policy). Anyway all the detail can be found at: https://github.com/ImperialCollegeLondon/covid19model

At: https://simassocc.org/2020/04/19/mathematics-vs-social-models-how-to-understand-the-sociology-of-corona-virus-spread/ It shows how policy conclusions can be critiqued by comparing models. In this case it was about the usefulness of track and trace apps. This has had an impact on the design and thinking about apps by the NL government. It is notable that both the teams involved (the social agent-based and the… Read More Post on the importance of comparing Covid19 models

As in previous cases (e.g. the foot and mouth outbreak of 2001) the tensions between scientific advice and policy decisions is difficult, even though the UK government is relatively pro-science and has established systems for channelling advice. The government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) gives confidential advice to the government, following established civil service… Read More BuzzFeed: more difficulties in the relationship between scientific advisers and UK government

The State of Victoria in Australia has released the full maths, parameterisation, assumptions behind its theoretical modelling that “informs” its decision making. Though not any of the computational scripts they used to do the calculations. Summary at: https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/theoretical-modelling-inform-victorias-response-coronavirus-covid-19 Full description at: https://www.doherty.edu.au/uploads/content_doc/McVernon_Modelling_COVID-19_07Apr1_with_appendix.pdf

Nice article discussing the relationship between the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) and ministers in both the current crisis and previous ones. Available at: https://www.ft.com/content/1e390ac6-7e2c-11ea-8fdb-7ec06edeef84 But one of the things that become clear is the lack of transparency. A quote from the article. One of the concerns about Sage is that it does not… Read More FT: an account of the difficult (and not open) relationship between modellers and policy actors

The UK Research Funding body (UKRI) has just asked for comments on its proposed policy: UKRI is seeking views on its proposed open access policy and related considerations via a consultation, which opens on 13 February 2020 and closes at noon on 29 May 2020. What is UKRI consulting on? UKRI Open Access Review consultation –… Read More UKRI launches limited consultation on Open Access

In the reports of lots of the modelling of covid19, it may look like mitigation save a lot of lives, rather than just delays the deaths. It is vital that reports of modelling are as honest and transparent as possible, to avoid later disillusionment and backlash against what modelling offers. A blog making this critique… Read More The importance of honesty and transparency in modelling

With a particular focus on the development and role of the Imperial/Ferguson model. “…to understand the value of COVID-19 models, it’s crucial to know how they are made and the assumptions on which they are built. “We’re building simplified representations of reality. Models are not crystal balls,” Ferguson says. A later snippet from the same… Read More Reflection on the Covid19 modelling process in Nature